Kirsten E. Peters, Isabella A. Joubert, Scott D. Bringans, Wendy A. Davis, Richard J. Lipscombe, Timothy M. E. Davis
Abstract
Background/Objectives: The current standard of care for assessing chronic kidney disease complicating diabetes (DKD) includes measurement of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin:creatinine ratio (uACR) but both tests have limitations. The present study compared the biomarker-based Promarker®D test with conventional biochemical measures for predicting future kidney function decline in adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods: Baseline concentrations of apolipoprotein A-IV, CD5 antigen-like protein and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 were combined with age, serum HDL cholesterol and eGFR to generate PromarkerD risk scores for incident DKD/eGFR decline ≥ 30% (the primary endpoint) in 857 adults with T2D (mean age 65.4 years, 54% males). Logistic regression modelling was used to compare the association of (i) PromarkerD, (ii) eGFR, (iii) uACR, and (iv) eGFR plus uACR with this outcome during 4 years of follow-up. Results: Study participants were classified by PromarkerD as low (63%), moderate (13%), or high risk (24%) for kidney function decline at baseline. Over a mean 4.2 years, 12.5% developed the primary endpoint. PromarkerD scores showed significantly higher predictive performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.85–0.91)) compared to conventional biochemical measures (AUC = 0.63–0.82). There was a progressive increase in risk with moderate and high risk by PromarkerD exhibiting greater odds of the primary endpoint compared to those at low risk (odds ratios (OR) (95% CI) 8.11 (3.99–16.94) and 21.34 (12.03–40.54), respectively, both p < 0.001). Conclusions: PromarkerD more accurately identifies adults with T2D at risk of kidney function decline than current usual care biochemical tests.
